For any generation, it’s unsettling to think that the next one will some day be in charge. It seems the up-and-comers traditionally don’t inspire a lot of confidence in their older, wiser counterparts and vice versa.
With energy demand forecast to rise, future political, social and business leaders face tough decisions. Photo: iStockphoto
Always fuelling tensions are different attitudes about everything from music, hairstyles and programming the PVR to political leadership, economic policy and smart phones.
One source of generational angst these days relates to energy and how we should produce and use it in the years ahead. Global demand is expected to ramp up significantly in the coming decades, but conventional sources of energy are becoming ever more difficult to find and develop. And, of course, there are also growing concerns about the impact our current energy sources play in climate change.
The International Energy Agency (IEA) expects an average increase in primary energy demand (PDF) of 1.2 percent per year, or 36 percent between 2008 and 2035. Most of the demand is expected to come from developing countries, such as China and India. As we have noted in a previous OSQAR, energy use and economic prosperity go hand in hand.
To keep up with demand, producers may have to scramble to secure additional safe sources of fuel and power. Much of this is expected to come from renewable sources, so while absolute demand for oil and gas should continue to rise, the IEA anticipates hydrocarbon’s share of the total energy mix to fall from 81 percent in 2008 to 74 percent in 2035.
So how might the next generation tackle this energy dilemma? The recent Alberta Energy Challenge (AEC) business case competition offered some insights.
Hosted by the University of Alberta and the student-run Commerce Energy and Environment Group, the AEC challenged teams of university students from across North America to explore creative solutions to real-time business cases. Participants had 36 hours to respond to a business case, interviewing industry experts from a range of different disciplines and researching a myriad of publications and university databases. On the final day, the participating teams presented their analysis and ideas to a panel of judges.
Suncor, one of the competition’s sponsors, challenged students to describe their vision of our energy future. And never passing up an opportunity for free business consulting, we also tasked them to recommend a corporate strategy that would best position Suncor to compete in the years ahead. So what did these potential political, social and business leaders tell us?
The students generally accepted the IEA’s vision of the energy future, in which a mix of energy solutions are seen to be required as improved living standards in the developing world drive energy demand. While seeing value in Suncor’s oil sands position in this context, they were also supportive of investment in renewable sources and, perhaps surprisingly, quite realistic about the economic and technical challenges in adding renewables to the future energy mix.
Another common theme was concern about Suncor’s international operations, which were perceived to be riskier than our oil sands business. As well, the students saw Suncor’s future success being dependent on its ability to access multiple markets.
While the AEC likely did little to relieve inter-generational tensions, it did engage energetic and enthusiastic future decision-makers in the all-important energy discussion. And we think that’s a good thing.
