As 2010 drew to a close, the global nuclear power industry was on an upswing. With memories of Chernobyl and Three Mile Island accidents fading, Sweden and Germany reversed plans to shutter their nuclear power plants early. Meanwhile Finland and France were building Europe’s first new nuke plants in over two decades and world-wide, some 400 more were on the drawing board.
Then came Fukushima. It happened, unlike Chernobyl, in a country with a high reputation for engineering excellence - a place which everyone had assumed knew how to manage its nuclear industry safely.
Protests against use of nuclear energy have been held in Frankfurt (above) and other German cities in recent weeks. “Atomkraft? Nein danke” means “Nuclear energy? No thank you!” Photo: iStockphoto
Just as with the Gulf of Mexico disaster, politicians grabbed onto a swinging energy pendulum, making long-term policy decisions in reaction to events rather than in anticipation of them. In Germany, in a matter of weeks, the once openly pro-nuclear Chancellor Merkel announced a national safety review and closure of the oldest plants, followed by an order for all nuclear plants to be closed by 2022 (Switzerland has since followed suit).
In fairness to Frau Merkel, nuclear power has long been a political hot potato in Germany due to an anti-nuclear Green movement,. The use of nuclear power to generate electricity there has fallen in the last 20 years from 32% to 23% (the statistic doesn’t account, however for the large amount of nuclear-generated electricity imported from France, which is 75% nuclear)
Germany has also closed its nuclear gap by investing massively in renewable sources, especially solar and wind which now account for 17% of all electricity generation. Merkel wants to grow this to 35% by 2022, while reducing GHG emissions by 40%. This will be a significant challenge because 40% of German electricity is produced from coal, the most carbon-intensive fuel of all and this proportion has been rising, not falling.
A possible solution could lie in the emerging prospects for shale gas in Europe. With shale gas, Europe, like the U.S., finds itself sitting on potentially cheap and bountiful gas reserves that could carry it through the coming nuclear shutdown.
This prospect is alarming to Germany’s Greens, in that their dream of 100% renewable power could be replaced by an abundant source which is not only still a GHG emitter but likely to cheaper than - and not involve subsidies for - less competitive solar and wind generation. For an interesting perspective on renewable subsidies, see the recent Guardian article.
The experience in Germany holds some lessons for all of us when it comes to weighing fuel options and making public policy decisions for our energy future.
We’ve highlighted in past OSQARs the importance of a national energy strategy to map out energy production and use. Event-driven reactions are inevitable, yet undermine strategy development.
Our advice? Hold on tight for another swing of the energy pendulum.
